Developing a predictive activity and cost model for transforming services
Our CCG customer needed a way of understanding their acute costs and activity for future planning. They needed a model designed by staff who understood them. They asked for support from the Specialist Business Intelligence team. The model had to include service planning, challenges to activity and costs and be flexible enough to analyse a range of scenarios.
We developed an Excel-based model, offering five year predictions for the activity, and monthly updates. We supplied, linked, validated and analysed the most current data. Our health economist undertook long term predictive modelling and uncertainty analysis, ensuring the model was robust. The model was successfully validated against the CCG business case. It was then given to the CCG to be maintained, with support for future development.
As a result of this, the CCG has a model to underpin its economic activity, designed to their needs and allowing them the flexibility to test different strategies and their consequences. We provided expert support to develop the project from a broad scope to a model which can be adapted to meet a range of CCG planning requirements.